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Domain > windfactor.com
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Yes
No
DNS Resolutions
Date
IP Address
2023-11-02
52.52.216.142
(
ClassC
)
2025-11-19
192.0.78.25
(
ClassC
)
Port 80
HTTP/1.1 301 Moved PermanentlyServer: nginxDate: Wed, 19 Nov 2025 14:42:23 GMTContent-Type: text/htmlContent-Length: 162Connection: keep-aliveLocation: https://windfactor.com/Alt-Svc: h3:443; ma86400Server-Timing: a8c-cdn, dc;descsea, cache;descBYPASS;dur0.0 html>head>title>301 Moved Permanently/title>/head>body>center>h1>301 Moved Permanently/h1>/center>hr>center>nginx/center>/body>/html>
Port 443
HTTP/1.1 200 OKServer: nginxDate: Wed, 19 Nov 2025 14:42:23 GMTContent-Type: text/html; charsetUTF-8Transfer-Encoding: chunkedConnection: keep-aliveStrict-Transport-Security: max-age31536000Vary: Accept-EncodingX-hacker: Want root? 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classwp-block-latest-posts__post-date>November 8, 2025/time>div classwp-block-latest-posts__post-full-content>!-- wp:heading {level:3} -->h3 classwp-block-heading>Valuation Headwinds for US Equities/h3>!-- /wp:heading -->!-- wp:paragraph -->p>Our trailing P/E for the S&P 500 Total Return Index is currently 27.8, slightly higher than last month and higher than 93% of periods since 1984. Similar valuation levels have historically translated into strong headwinds for US stock returns./p>!-- /wp:paragraph -->!-- wp:image {id:82,sizeSlug:full,linkDestination:none,align:center} -->figure classwp-block-image aligncenter size-full>img loadinglazy width398 height245 srchttps://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-chart1-1.png alt classwp-image-82 srcsethttps://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-chart1-1.png 398w, https://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-chart1-1.png?w150&h92 150w, https://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-chart1-1.png?w300&h185 300w sizes(max-width: 398px) 100vw, 398px />/figure>!-- /wp:image -->!-- wp:paragraph -->p>Historical periods with starting valuations similar to today include select months during 1998-2001, 2003, and 2020-21. Analysis of total returns from these “best-match” periods shows the following:/p>!-- /wp:paragraph -->!-- wp:list {ordered:true} -->ol classwp-block-list>!-- wp:list-item -->li>The index rose an average of 4% over the subsequent year but only an annualized average of -1% over the next three years. For comparison, since 1988 the index’s average total return over those time horizons has been 12% and 11% per year, respectively./li>!-- /wp:list-item -->!-- wp:list-item -->li>The index fell over the next year in 42% of best-match periods and was lower after three years in up to 57% of periods. Notably, this accounts for nearly half of all negative 3-year outcomes observed since 1988, despite the relatively small number of best-match periods included in the analysis(~7%)./li>!-- /wp:list-item -->!-- wp:list-item -->li>None of the best-match periods saw exceptional returns (30%/yr or more) that the index has achieved with lower starting valuations. The highest 3-yr return was a constrained 17% per year./li>!-- /wp:list-item -->!-- wp:list-item -->li>On the low side, one close comparable period (March 2000) saw annualized 3-yr returns of -16%. For reference, the worst 3-year period during the 2008 financial crisis was only -10%, from June 2007 – June 2010./li>!-- /wp:list-item -->/ol>!-- /wp:list -->!-- wp:paragraph -->p>Note: These results depend on how closely we match today’s trailing P/E to past values. The following table shows analysis for periods with starting P/E within 3%, 5%, and 10% of today. The story appears consistent at all levels./p>!-- /wp:paragraph -->!-- wp:image {id:84,sizeSlug:large,linkDestination:none,align:center} -->figure classwp-block-image aligncenter size-large>img loadinglazy width655 height200 srchttps://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-table1-2.png?w655 alt classwp-image-84 srcsethttps://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-table1-2.png 655w, https://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-table1-2.png?w150 150w, https://windfactorcom.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/202511-table1-2.png?w300 300w sizes(max-width: 655px) 100vw, 655px />/figure>!-- /wp:image -->!-- wp:heading {level:4} -->h4 classwp-block-heading>Disclaimer:/h4>!-- /wp:heading -->!-- wp:paragraph -->p>This report is 100% historical fact and does not constitute investment advice. 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This will redirect to their blog if they only have one. const postEndpoint `https://wordpress.com/post`; // Ideally we would use the permalink here, but fortunately this will be replaced with the // post permalink in the editor. const originalURL `${ document.location.href }?page_id${ post_id }`; const url postEndpoint + ?url + encodeURIComponent( originalURL ) + &is_post_sharetrue + &v5; const redirect function () { if ( ! window.open( url, _blank ) ) { location.href url; } }; if ( /Firefox/.test( navigator.userAgent ) ) { setTimeout( redirect, 0 ); } else { redirect(); } }, }; window.wpcom_reblog wpcom_reblog; })(); /script>script src//stats.wp.com/w.js?68 defer>/script> script typetext/javascript>_tkq window._tkq || ;_stq window._stq || ;_tkq.push(storeContext, {blog_id:227404510,blog_tz:-8,user_lang:en,blog_lang:en,user_id:0});_stq.push(view, {blog:227404510,v:wpcom,tz:-8,user_id:0,arch_home:1,subd:windfactorcom});_stq.push(extra, {crypt:UE5tW3cvZGQ/JUs1UEpSdi1dRV9aa1lnfD1uUXIwSiVJWUhGdEswb1suUC5SUUtoai5BZUgrK0c0JS9hczNmQUMuJixmaC1TXW1RZzguX0EyNExlNVM4U1pVQncvRC1US1I3VyZwV20/W1o/bmo2RnNQWkl1aXxOci1CcGNnbC14VD1fLzk4QlhWbFVPLGxud2FGZlRSTiZRU3k/N1lMMnpycnUmalFdN1dxVkx8LEtMc041fHR8TQ});_stq.push( clickTrackerInit, 227404510, 0 );/script>noscript>img srchttps://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?vnoscript styleheight:1px;width:1px;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;bottom:1px; alt />/noscript>meta idbilmur propertybilmur:data content data-providerwordpress.com data-servicesimple data-site-tzAmerica/Los_Angeles data-custom-props{"enq_wp-polyfill":"1","logged_in":"0","wptheme":"pub\/twentytwentyfive","wptheme_is_block":"1"} > script defer src/wp-content/js/bilmur.min.js?i17&m202546>/script> /body>/html>
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